Due to the damage from earthquakes in 2019, there have been over 4 million homes at risk in the state of California. Homes in both the northern and the southern part of the state may be at risk from damage due to earthquakes.
In the past couple of weeks, California has been affected by a 6.4 and a 7.1 earthquake. Based on risk assessment from 2016 as many as 3.5 million homes in California would be damaged is an 8.0 earthquake hit the San Andreas Fault. This has increased up to 126 percent based on location and the cost of home replace reached into the billions. The assessment from 2016 showed billions of dollars in damage. This number has increased over the years based on rising home prices.
By 2019, with the additional homes built in the state and the increase in property values, there are over 4 million homes at risk to suffer significant damage due to earthquakes and the damage will be over $350 billion.
The San Andreas Fault goes along the coast from the north all the way to the Mexican border. It affects populated areas include the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles.
A large earthquake is now possible and can reach at least 8.0 This will cause the most damage and affect a greater population. At one time this seemed impossible but it is now possible. Based on new data there is a great risk of the entire state being impacted by a big earthquake.
Scenario 1 San Andreas Ruptures
If an 8.3 earthquake hit the fault it will expand from Mendocino County to Riverside County. This will cause a large amount of damage. There will be $289 billion in damage and will affect 1.6 to 3.5 million acres in the entire state.
Scenario 2 Southern San Andreas Rupture
In the southern part of the states, there will be many homes damaged. As many as 3.5 million homes may be damaged which is an increase. It will cost several hundred billion to reconstruct the southern part of the state.
UCERF Earthquake Model
The Uniformed California Earthquake Rapture Forecast is a project that has been conducted over many years by a leading scientist at the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities that will view the hazards of the earthquakes across the entire state.
The researchers are looking at the frequency and distributions of the earthquakes based on seismic activity along the faults. They looked at the magnitude and the frequency and patterns in the historical records which is known as the Gutenberg Richter relationship. To look at this either multiple faults need to have a quake that is located close to each other. With the threat of earthquakes, it is the best time to buy a house if people feel like there is a threat and need to leave the area. Based on popular research it seems there is no part of the entire state that is free from the damage of the earthquakes.
Based on a previous model the findings have found that an increase in the rupture lengths and the higher magnitude that there is the potential for a great amount of damage. The San Andres Fault has been viewed in two segments. There was the northern side as well as the southern fault segments. At one time there were seen as independent of each other. It was thought that a single earthquake would not be able to affect both segments which are separated by what is called a creeping segment. With the new technology and new research methods is was shown that the northern and the southern segments of the San Andres fault now have the ability to rupture together. This will happen if the area is hit by a large earthquake that is able to impact the northern and the southern part of the state. In this case, there will be mass damage.